The energy transition poses new challenges for distribution networks: decentralized feed-in of renewable energy, electrification of heat and mobility, and the integration of market-driven storage systems. Imbalances between generation and consumption increasingly require costly measures such as redispatch, balancing power, and grid expansion, leading to rising grid fees.

ZSW develops and tests solutions for resilient grid management. Using AI-based models, we forecast grid states up to 72 hours in advance, enabling early detection of grid bottlenecks. Flexible consumers and storage systems can be integrated in a grid-neutral or even grid-supportive manner through dynamic power limitations in Flexible Connection Agreements (FCAs) or through dynamic grid fees.

Contact

Jonas Petzschmann
+49 711 7870-160
Transparency for distribution grids

Distribution system operators are central players in the energy transition and face considerable challenges. The rapid expansion of largely unmonitored low-voltage networks requires the deployment of additional metering technology and controllable local substations. For secure grid operation, weather-dependent generators, dynamically tariffed households, and market-optimized storage systems must be forecasted.

ZSW supports distribution system operators with the forecasting system GridSage. It delivers high-resolution generation and load forecasts and provides these automatically to the grid control center. Drawing on many years of AI expertise in distribution networks, ZSW creates greater grid transparency through:

  • Forecasting of Redispatch 2.0-relevant renewable energy plants: 72-hour forecast at 15-minute resolution for weather-dependent generators
  • Forecasting of rooftop PV systems: aggregation of small-scale installations
  • Spatially resolved load forecasting: based on (standard) load profiles or historical RLM data
  • Forecasting of terminal power at metered local substations as input for load flow calculations: AI model trained on historical measurement data
  • Extrapolation of unmetered local substations: based on renewable energy forecasts and load profiles
  • Aggregation at transformer substations: forecasting of grid utilization at the substation level
  • Visualization: dashboards and map views in a web-based tool
  • Determination of time-variable and dynamic FCA limits: evaluation of historical data and derivation of power limits for FCAs

Further information

  • Forecasting tool for grid operators — GridSage
  • Hybrid power plants and retrofitting of existing PV parks with battery storage → Link PV parks
  • Flexible Connection Agreements (FCAs) for battery storage (STRIVE)

// Further information

Forecasting tool for grid operators — GridSage

Hybrid power plants and retrofitting of existing PV parks with battery storage → Link PV parks

Flexible Connection Agreements (FCAs) for battery storage (STRIVE)

Grid-Supportive Integration of Storage Systems

Large-scale batteries are increasingly being connected to distribution networks to engage in electricity exchange arbitrage and balancing energy marketing. However, market-optimized charging/discharging profiles do not account for physical transport capacities and can exacerbate local grid bottlenecks.

Flexible grid connections give network operators the ability to impose dynamic, locally and temporally limited active power limits on storage operation. At ZSW, we develop and evaluate precisely these grid-supportive integration solutions for battery storage systems:

  • Flexible Connection Agreements (FCAs): Dynamic power limits based on current grid utilization forecasts
  • Impact of storage systems on the grid: Simulation and assessment of effects arising from flexibility marketing on short-term balancing and energy markets
  • Grid-supportiveness analysis: Investigation of typical grid situations using (historical) redispatch signals and the influence of market-optimized storage systems
  • Analysis of regulatory frameworks: Scientific evaluation of proposed regulatory changes
  • Long-term grid planning with storage systems: Consideration in grid expansion planning
  • Hybridization with wind and PV installations: Operating behavior of battery storage systems in co-location and hybrid power plants, as well as the overbuild of existing grid connections
  • Grid impacts from electrolyzers: Analysis and simulation of electrolyzer operating behavior
  • Prosumer load profiles: Adapted standard load profiles for households with PV and/or storage systems
Photo: Adobe Stock / 1709938763
Dynamic Grid Tariffs

Under EnWG §14a Module 3, controllable consumers can already opt for time-variable grid tariffs. The Federal Network Agency is further developing the new grid tariff framework from 2029 onwards through the AgNes process (launched in mid-2025). A key proposal is a day-ahead published dynamic grid tariff component based on current weather and exchange forecasts as well as expected local grid utilization. This allows flexible consumers such as charging infrastructure or grid-connected storage systems to be specifically incentivized toward grid-supportive behavior.

At ZSW, we address the methodological, technical, and regulatory questions surrounding dynamic grid tariffs in a holistic manner:

  • High-resolution grid utilization forecasts for the distribution network: 72-hour horizon at 15-minute resolution for local substations
  • Calculation of dynamic grid tariffs: based on the grid utilization forecast
  • Effectiveness analysis: Quantitative comparison between static, time-variable, and dynamic grid tariffs with regard to congestion avoidance
  • Price elasticity and response behavior of prosumers: Simulation and laboratory investigation of responses to dynamic grid tariffs

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